Ken Caryl Real Estate | 2016 Market Updates

Ken Caryl Real Estate | 2016 Market Updates

Ken Caryl Real Estate | July

Home prices in Ken Caryl Ranch
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It looks like Ken Caryl real estate is starting to get a bit more “real.” It’s not secret that homes for sale in Ken Caryl have been rare and home prices in Ken Caryl have been rising steadily rapidly. There are some strong indicators that the Ken Caryl real estate market is feeling a bit of a shift, especially in the Plains. Remember, when we talk about real estate in Ken Caryl, we look at 3 distinct markets: Ken Caryl Valley (west of C470), Ken Caryl Plains (what many refer to as “The Ranch”, which is east of C470), and condos/townhomes in the Plains.

Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate

  • 17 homes currently for sale
  • 20 homes under contract
  • 7 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Valley in July
  • 17 homes for sale have an average price of $786,323 and have been on the market 42 days (65% have had price drops).
  • 20 homes pending sale have an average price of $833,265, with an average of 25 DOM (Only 30% had price drops).
  • 7 homes that sold averaged $788,414 (97% of asking), and were on the market 35 days. 5 of the 7 sold at asking price and were on the market an average of 2 days! The other 2 sales skewed the #’s that much!

Ken Caryl Ranch Real Estate

  • 9 homes currently for sale
  • 9 homes currently under contract
  • 6 homes sold in the Plains (Ranch) in July
  • 9 homes for sale average $491,778 and have been on the market 43 days
  • 9 homes pending sale average $404,167 and have been on the market 7 days (78% were under 5 days)
  • 6 homes that sold averaged $396,750 (97% of asking), and were on the market for 22 days.
Ken Caryl Condos/Town homes For Sale
  • 4 currently for sale
  • 8 pending sale
  • 8 condos sold in Ken Caryl in July
  • 4 for sale average $197,940 and have been on the market 7 days
  • 8 pending sale average $255,225 and were on the market 5 days
  • 8 condo sales averaged $254,813 (103% of asking!) and were on the market 3 days. 7 of the 8 sold between 103%-108% of asking.
Ken Caryl Valley Home Prices
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Homes in the Plains have been rising at a higher rate than those in the Valley, and it seems like sellers are getting a bit over eager while buyers are no longer playing the game. The 13 active homes for sale in Ken Caryl Plains is the most we’ve seen since October ’15, and 3x more than we’ve seen at any time this year other than last month. The increased number of homes for sale isn’t affecting our actual home sales at all. We are currently on pace to have 137 homes sell in the Ken Caryl Plains this year. The past 3 years we’ve had 138, 130, and 135. The 22 days on market for this month is 57% higher than we’ve seen since March. More homes for sale, longer days on market, and no increase in sales indicates that the Plains are seeing a slight shift in their market.

The other side of the highway is a different story. Consider there are 17 homes for sale in the Ken Caryl Valley…this same time 3 years ago there were 78! The inventory crunch is leading to a sales dip as well, as the 7 home sales in July is less than 1/2 of what we’ve seen each July for the past 3 years. In the Valley, low inventory is leading to rising prices. It’s still interesting to me that there is such a large discrepancy in price and days on market for the homes currently for sale and those that have actually sold.

Ken Caryl Valley Homes for sale
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Like I said, Ken Caryl real estate is becoming real. It’s time for sellers to get real and price their homes accordingly. When 5 of the 7 homes that sell in the Valley last 2 days or fewer and sell at asking price, it makes you wonder what the 17 people are doing who have seen their homes sit for over a month and a half. The buyers are still out there, they’re just no longer willing to go crazy and over pay. That being said, the inventory is still very low, and prices are still rising, so buyers who are “waiting to see what happens” are finding themselves get further and further behind each month.

If you’d like a free online valuation of what your home in Ken Caryl is worth, you can find that on my Ken Caryl real estate site. I’d be happy to swing by and give you a more accurate valuation in person if you’d like!

Ken Caryl Real Estate | June

Number of home sales in Ken Caryl
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When people ask, “What’s the real estate market like in Ken Caryl?” I answer “It depends.” It depends on a lot of factors. Are you selling? Buying? Trying to move up? Downsize? We don’t have a real estate market in Ken Caryl, we have several. When reviewing home sales in Ken Caryl, I make three distinctions. I like to talk about the Ken Caryl Valley (West of C470), the Ken Caryl Plains (east of C470…what many residents refer to as “The Ranch”) and condos/townhomes in the Plains.

Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate

  • 21 homes currently for sale
  • 16 homes pending sale
  • 22 homes sold in the Ken Caryl Valley in June
  • The 21 active homes have an average price of $822,923 and have been on the market 25 days
  • The 16 pending homes have an average price of $820,044 and have been on the market 23 days
  • The 22 homes that sold in June averaged $736,362 (98% of asking) and were on for 24 days
  • YTD 66 homes have sold in the Valley (up 53% from the same period last year)
  • Average home price for Ken Caryl Valley YTD is $709,295 (up 13.5% from last year)

Ken Caryl Plains Real Estate

  • 7 homes are currently for sale
  • 9 homes are pending sale
  • 8 homes sold in Ken Caryl Plains in June
  • The 7 homes for sale average $469,329 and have been on the market 42 days
  • The 9 homes pending average $425,311 and have been on the market 15 days
  • The 8 homes that sold average $452,613 (101% of asking!) and were on 9 days (7 of the 8 were on less than 1 week)
  • YTD 32 homes have sold in The Plains (up 45%)
  • Ken Caryl home prices average $442,263 (up 20% from last year)
Ken Caryl Condos/Townhomes
  • 2 attached homes currently for sale (both came on today)
  • 10 are currently pending sale
  • 4 condos in Ken Caryl sold in June
  • The 10 pending sale average $248,480 and were on the market 3 days
  • The 4 condos that sold average $271,475 and were on the market 2 days
  • YTD 32 condos/townhomes have sold in Ken Caryl (down 3% from last year)
  • Average price of condos in Ken Caryl is $227,328 (up 12%)
Ken Caryl Home prices
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Overall, the Ken Caryl real estate market continues to be extremely tight. We simply don’t have enough homes for sale to meet the demand, and many buyers are still waiting for things to slow down. Here’s a scary thought. If you started looking last year for a $400,000 home in Ken Caryl, but decided to wait to let things slow down, you’ve lost about $100,000!  That $400,000 home is now worth about $480,000 considering the 20% price increase, and you’ve probably spent at least $20,000 in rent over the past 12 months. Now usually I like median home prices better, as they often tell a truer story. The median price increase year over year is…20%. If you’re selling a home in Ken Caryl, it just couldn’t be better. If you’re looking to buy a home in Ken Caryl it may be time to take some action and not wait any longer.

This is a very broad look at homes for sale in Ken Caryl and the market trends. These numbers will vary by price point, condition, etc. If you’d like to know what your home is worth in today’s market, click the link above or you can get your Ken Caryl home value instantly here. 

Homes for sale in Ken Caryl
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Ken Caryl Real Estate | May

Homes for sale in Ken Caryl
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You know that feeling when you’re on an airplane and you just need your ears to pop, and they won’t? At first it’s not a big deal because you’re expecting it, then after a while you begin to get worried because you think they should have popped by now. Then it becomes really uncomfortable and it starts hurting and you get all sorts of irrational ideas like “I’ll be this way forever” or “Am I going to go deaf from this?” That’s how the Ken Caryl real estate market is starting to feel. Remember, Ken Caryl real estate is divided into three distinct categories: The Ken Caryl Valley (homes west of C470), the Ken Caryl Plains (the area east of C470 that many residents refer to as “The Ranch Side”), and condos or townhomes in the Plains.

Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate

The Ken Caryl Valley is seeing a huge surge in home sales, and a huge shortage in homes for sale.

  • Currently 8 homes for sale in the Ken Caryl Valley
  • There are 22 homes pending sale
  • 15 homes sold in May in the Ken Caryl Valley
  • The 8 homes for sale have an average asking price of $875,175 and have been on the market an avg of 29 days
  • The 22 pending sales have an average asking price of $788,841 and have been on the market an avg of 34 days (13 of those 22 were on less than 2 weeks prior to their offer)
  • The 15 homes that sold averaged $735,787 (98% of their asking price) and were on for 24 days (8 of the 15 were on the market less than 1 week)
Number of home sales in Ken Caryl
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Ken Caryl Ranch Real Estate

The complete lack of inventory is causing rippling problems in our market. Traditionally people moved up from the Plains to the Valley. Now, people can’t find a place in the Valley, meaning they don’t sell their place in the Plains, so nobody new can move in.

  • There are 4 homes for sale in the Ken Caryl Ranch (Plains)
  • There are 5 homes pending sale
  • Only 5 homes sold in the Plains in May
  • The 4 homes for sale have an avg price of $439,975 and have been on the market an avg of 54 days. (Okay, side rant here. One has been on for 143 days, another for 60 days. In this market. One is listed with a no-service real estate company, the other is an owner/broker…the listing agent also owns the house. Look at those 2 #’s…143 and 60, and compare them to all the other days on market numbers in this post. End of my rant).
  • 5 homes pending have an average price of $472,780 and an average days on market of 13 (4 of the 5 were less than 1wk)
  • 5 homes that sold were at an average price of $452,100 (103% of asking!) and were on the market 12 days (the 3 that sold over asking were less than a week, the 2 that sold less than asking were both over 3 weeks)

Ken Caryl Condos

The condo market in Ken Caryl continues to be staggering. I was recently asked why anyone wouldn’t sell in this market with these numbers. The answer is easy. Rents are estimated to be at about 125% of mortgage payments right now. It pays, literally, not to sell.

  • There is 1 condo for sale for $199,900
  • There are 6 condos pending sale
  • In May, 5 condos sold in Ken Caryl
  • The 6 pending sale average $252,600 and were on the market for 2 days
  • The 5 sales averaged $235,500 (104% of asking) and were on for 3 days. All 5 sold at or over asking price.

The luxury market in the Ken Caryl Valley is also seeing a great surge. In 2015, 4 homes sold for over $1M in Ken Caryl. In May, 3 sold over $1M and another 4 are pending sale. Overall, real estate in Ken Caryl is suffering due to the tight market. Some people think this is “hot” and the reality is it’s not healthy. A “balanced” market has 6 months of inventory, we currently have just over 1 week. For perspective, in 2012 Ken Caryl had 78 home sales through May. This year we have 96. In 2012 there were 503 active listings (adding up total listings per month, so many of those would be carried over month to month). This year, we have 18 more sales with 415 fewer homes for sale.

If you are considering selling your home in Ken Caryl, or if you’d like a no obligation, no cost analysis of your home’s current value, please give me a call today at 303.578.6260

Home prices in Ken Caryl
Avg and Median home price

Ken Caryl Real Estate | April

The Ken Caryl real estate market was a big month for home sellers. If you’re looking to buy a home in Ken Caryl, this may be a frustrating time for you. For real estate purposes Ken Caryl is divided up into 3 distinct markets: The Ken Caryl Valley (west of C470), The Ken Caryl Plains (most residents refer to this area east of C470 as “The Ranch”), and condos/town homes in the Plains.

Number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl Valley
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Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate:

  • There are currently 10 homes for sale in the Ken Caryl Valley
  • There are a remarkable 24 homes pending sale
  • Only 5 homes sold in the Valley in April
  • 10 homes for sale average asking price is $852,085, with an average of 44 days on the market

    Home prices in Ken Caryl Valley
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  • 24 pending homes average asking price is $761,025, with an average of 27 DOM (10 of those are less than 1 week)
  • 5 homes that sold average selling price is $732,700 (98% of asking price), with 22 DOM

Ken Caryl Ranch (Plains) Real Estate:

  • Only 4 houses are for sale in Ken Caryl (1 is negotiating multiple offers received on day 1)
  • 9 homes are pending sale
  • Home prices in Ken Caryl
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    7 homes sold in Ken Caryl Ranch in April

  • 4 homes for sale average asking price is $507,200, and they’ve been on the market 43 days
  • 9 homes pending average asking price is $449,744, with only 8 DOM
  • 7 homes that sold average sales price was $434,214 (102% of asking!), with 14 DOM. Remarkably 6 of the 7 homes sold at or above asking price, and those 6 all sold in less than 1 week!
Ken Caryl Ranch Condos Real Estate:
  • 0 condos for sale in Ken Caryl currently
  • 6 condos are pending sale
  • 5 condos sold in April
  • 6 pending sale average asking price is $216,783, and were on the market for 5 days
  • 5 condos that sold average sales price is $212,280 (103% of asking) and were on the market for 3 days!

All of these numbers are just numbers until you put some perspective to them. Looking at the Ken Caryl Plains side, the number of homes that sold in April is double any of the previous 4 Aprils, yet the number of homes currently for sale is less than 25% of any of the previous 4 Aprils. When you get my phone calls or read my Facebook posts saying we have a housing inventory crisis in Ken Caryl, that is what I am referring to!

Pricing is another interesting thing to watch. Prices in the Valley have flat lined the past 18 months or so, while the Plains have continued to see an unhealthy, unsustainable rise in prices. The Valley is often compared to neighboring Willow Springs, and our market is in a much better place right now. Willow springs has 17 homes for sale, 7 pending sale, and only 3 sales in April. YTD they have 13 sales averaging $763,675 (94% of asking), whereas the Valley has 28 sales averaging $674,428 (97% of asking).

Number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl Ranch
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Bottom line is that we are still very much in a seller’s market, and the primary thing to bring us back to a more stable market is simply inventory. People don’t seem to want to move, as the question lingers, “Where would I go?” Despite the fact the selling climate is better now than ever before in Ken Caryl’s history, there’s just not enough motivation for people to sell. It also has to be noted that these numbers only reflect homes sold via the MLS, and I know of 4 personally that never hit the market and sold this past month.

If you would like to know what your home in Ken Caryl is worth in today’s market, or would like help navigating a home purchase in this climate, please give me a call at 303.578.6260 or email me at ThomsonHomes@Gmail.com

Ken Caryl Real Estate | March

Number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl
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The Ken Caryl real estate market had a slight surge in March, and that was almost exclusively located in the Ken Caryl Valley. When I look at real estate in Ken Caryl, I divide the neighborhood into 3 distinct markets: The Ken Caryl Valley (West of C470), The Ken Caryl Plains (referred to by most residents as “The Ranch”…located east of C470) and condos/townhomes located in the Plains. Let’s take a look at how home sales looked in March.

Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate:

  • 10 homes currently for sale
  • 19 homes pending sale (this is a huge number!)
  • 9 homes sold in March
  • 10 homes for sale average $746,890 and have been on the market 61 days on average
  • 19 homes pending sale average $805,816 (4 are over $1M) and were on the market only 28 days (6 less than 1 week)
  • 9 homes that sold averaged $693,889 (98% of asking price) and were on for 51 days. This is the most sales in March since 2012

Ken Caryl Plains Real Estate

  • 3 homes for sale
  • 8 homes pending sale
  • 2 homes sold in March
  • 3 homes for sale average $514,600 and have been on for 30 days
  • 8 homes pending average $428,538 and were on for only 17 days
  • 2 sales averaged $444,878 (97% of asking) and were on for 28 days
Ken Caryl Condos For Sale
  • 1 condo for sale ($200,000)
  • 7 condos pending
  • 5 condos sold in March
  • 7 condos pending averaged $211,743 and were on for 4 whole days
  • 5 condos that sold averaged $230,800 (102% of asking) and were also on for 4 days.
Number of home sales in Ken Caryl
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It is very encouraging to see the Ken Caryl luxury home market take off this month. There were a grand total of 4 homes that sold over $1M in all of 2015, so to see 4 pending this month is a great sign. Having 19 homes pending sale is really remarkable, and with that number double what is active is testament to the fact that demand is still very high, and supply is still far too low. While only seeing 2 homes sell in the Plains may seem shocking, that’s basically on par with the last 6 year average for March. Most of these numbers bode very well for Ken Caryl real estate, and the inventory (or lack of it) is still a concern. Perhaps the biggest problem lies in the complete unavailability of started homes in Ken Caryl. There is currently 1 home for sale in the entire neighborhood for under $500,000. With the condos flying off the shelf in a weekend at over asking price, our neighborhood has eliminated the entry level buyer, which at some point will affect the move up buyers. Currently, it appears that buyers are entering other neighborhoods and using Ken Caryl as their move up neighborhood.

If you are looking to sell your home in Ken Caryl, or if you’d just like to know what your home is worth in today’s market, please give me a call at 303.578.6260. If you are wanting to buy real estate in Ken Caryl, please call me as I’d be happy to assist you with that as well. You can also download my free real estate search app for the most current information on homes for sale in Ken Caryl and the entire US.

Ken Caryl home prices
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Ken Caryl Real Estate | February

Active homes for sale in Ken Caryl
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Ken Caryl real estate can be summed up in one word, the same word that can characterize most of the Metro Denver area real estate: Shortage. There is simply a shortage of homes. In fact, we currently have the fewest number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl–and in the Denver MLS as a whole–in the recorded history of the Denver MLS. As I break down the Ken Caryl home sales, I look at three distinct markets: The Ken Caryl Valley (homes west of C470), detached homes in the Ken Caryl Plains (many residents call this area the “Ranch,” east of C470), and condos/townhomes in the Plains.

Ken Caryl Valley Real Estate:

  • 13 homes for sale
  • 11 homes pending sale
  • 5 homes sold in February
  • 13 active homes average $855,985 asking price and have been on the market for 55 days
  • 11 pending homes average $716,423 and were on the market for 37 days (4 were on for less than 1 week)
  • 5 sold homes averaged $561,500 (98% of asking) and were on for 36 days. 3 of the 5 sold at or over asking price and were on the market for less than 10 days

Ken Caryl Plains Real Estate

  • 2 homes for sale ($629,000 and $429,900; both have been on for several months)
  • 5 homes pending sale
  • 10 homes sold in February
  • 5 pending homes average $444,580 and were on the market for 26 days
  • 10 sold homes averaged $434,175 (97% of asking) and were on for 72 days. 3 of the 10 were on for less than 1 week and all sold for over asking price
Ken Caryl Condo sales
  • 1 condo for sale
  • 5 under contract (average 4 days, $223,980)
  • 5 condos sold in February (average 3 days, $211,640…104% of asking!)
Average home price in Ken Caryl
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The numbers for home sales in Ken Caryl in February say two things very clearly. One, there isn’t much for sale. Sellers have a golden opportunity right now, and buyers are getting frustrated. Two, many home sellers aren’t getting good advice or are making poor decisions. When inventory is this low, sales are this high, and homes are selling so quickly for over asking price, it’s hard to understand being on the market for months…actually even for weeks! Now, the luxury market in the Ken Caryl Valley (homes over $600k), is a bit different and much slower. Prices have actually dipped each of the past two years, though I think that’s more a reflection of fewer homes over $1M selling than it is indicative of home prices actually dropping.

These numbers don’t include a handful of For Sale By Owner homes that have gone under contract this month as well. Interestingly, homes that are FSBO, while they are still selling quickly and at or near asking price, may still be leaving a great deal of money on the table. Homes that gain more exposure are getting multiple offers, and as the numbers show selling for as much as 4% over asking price.

If you have thought of selling your home in Ken Caryl, please give me a call and let’s discover how I can best serve you.

Monthly home sales in Ken Caryl
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Ken Caryl Real Estate in January

I don’t really even know how to write this post. The words to describe just how odd of a month January was for real estate in Ken Caryl are escaping me. I guess I’ll just report the numbers and let you make your own sense out of this! Remember, when I talk about real estate in Ken Caryl, I look at three very distinct markets: Ken Caryl Valley (west of C470), detached homes in the Ken Caryl Plains (what many refer to as “The Ranch,” east of C470), and condos in the Plains.

Ken Caryl Valley:

  • 11 homes currently for sale
  • 10 homes pending sale, or under contract
  • 8 homes sold in January
  • 11 homes for sale average $873,518 asking price, and have been on the market 38 days
  • 10 homes pending average $693,232 asking price and have been on the market for 64 days
  • 8 homes that sold averaged $693,499, which was 95% of their asking price, and were on for 77 days

Ken Caryl Plains:

  • 1 home for sale….yes, 1
  • 7 homes pending sale
  • 0 homes sold in January. That’s not a misprint
  • The 1 active home is asking $489,000, a very high number in my opinion, and when you’re the only game in town, you can pretty much name your own price
  • The 7 homes pending averaged $466,957 and were on the market for 70 days
Condos in Ken Caryl Plains:
  • 0 condos for sale…none
  • 5 condos pending sale
  • 6 condos sold in January
  • 5 condos pending averaged $228,400 and were on the market an average of 5 days
  • 6 condos that sold averaged $211,250 (98% of their asking) and were on an average of 19 days

I’ve never seen anything like this, and quite frankly neither have you because there’s never been a month like this in Ken Caryl real estate. The last time no homes sold in the Plains in a month was September of 2010. Combining all of these low numbers, we can’t find another month that had so few homes for sale and so few sales. If you’re looking to sell your home in Ken Caryl, you literally have never had a better time. There is no competition and you can all but name your price, simply dependent on getting it to appraise.

Take a look at what home prices have done the past 5 years, as well as the massive discrepancy between how many homes were for sale versus how many homes actually sold.

Average home price in Ken Caryl
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Number of homes for sale in Ken Caryl
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Home sales vs inventory Ken Caryl
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